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The Resource The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't, Nate Silver

The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't, Nate Silver

Creator
Summary
  • The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction
  • Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
Language
eng
Work
Publication
Extent
534 pages
Contents
  • A catastrophic failure of prediction
  • Are you smarter than a television pundit?
  • All I care about is W's and L's
  • For years you've been telling us that rain is green
  • Desperately seeking signal
  • How to drown in three feet of water
  • Role models
  • Less and less and less wrong
  • Rage against the machines
  • The poker bubble
  • If you can't beat 'em--
  • A climate of healthy skepticism
  • What you don't know can hurt you
Isbn
9780143124009
Instance
Label
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't
Title
The signal and the noise
Title remainder
why so many predictions fail--but some don't
Statement of responsibility
Nate Silver
Creator
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
  • The author has built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and has become a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, he examines the world of prediction
  • Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
Awards note
Wall Street Journal Best Ten Works of Nonfiction
Cataloging source
DLC
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1978-
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Silver, Nate
Dewey number
519.5/42
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
index present
LC call number
CB158
LC item number
.S54 2012
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Forecasting
  • Forecasting
  • Forecasting
  • Bayesian statistical decision theory
  • Knowledge, Theory of
Label
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't, Nate Silver
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you
Control code
ocn780480483
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
534 pages
Isbn
9780143124009
Lccn
2012027308
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other control number
  • 9781594204111
  • 40021412704
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
(OCoLC)780480483
Label
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't, Nate Silver
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and index
Carrier category
volume
Carrier category code
  • nc
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
A catastrophic failure of prediction -- Are you smarter than a television pundit? -- All I care about is W's and L's -- For years you've been telling us that rain is green -- Desperately seeking signal -- How to drown in three feet of water -- Role models -- Less and less and less wrong -- Rage against the machines -- The poker bubble -- If you can't beat 'em-- -- A climate of healthy skepticism -- What you don't know can hurt you
Control code
ocn780480483
Dimensions
25 cm
Extent
534 pages
Isbn
9780143124009
Lccn
2012027308
Media category
unmediated
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • n
Other control number
  • 9781594204111
  • 40021412704
Other physical details
illustrations
System control number
(OCoLC)780480483

Subject

Genre

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